Ben Thompson writes on the Big 5 (Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta/Facebook, Microsoft) and where they stand in the AI field today.
… [is] AI complementary to existing business models (i.e. Apple devices are better with AI) or disruptive to them (i.e. AI might be better than Search but monetize worse). A higher level question, however, is if AI simply obsoletes everything, from tech business models to all white collar work to work generally or even to life itself.
Perhaps it is the smallness of my imagination or my appreciation of the human condition that makes me more optimistic than many about the probability of the most dire of predictions: I think they are quite low. At the same time, I think that those dismissing AI as nothing but hype are missing the boat as well. This is a big deal, even if the changes may end up fitting into the Bill Gates maxim that “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”
I tend to agree with Thompson’s predictions — change over the next decade will be significant (and hard to imagine now) and the likelihood of the dire predictions coming true is astonishingly low in the near term.
Like Thompson, I assumed that Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI would position them to lap the other companies listed here, but the Copilot product is persistently disappointing, especially when considering ChatGPT’s rising utility. Google Gemini, as a tool, is gaining capabilities, particularly as it relates to Veo and programming, although I think the Gemini-infused Google search results have too many embarrassing mistakes for it to be a useful tool today.